Geopolitical realignments are fundamentally reshaping the global semiconductor manufacturing map. According to a new forecast by research firm TrendForce, the United States is projected to become a much larger player in advanced chipmaking by 2030, capturing 28% of global advanced-process capacity. Concurrently, China is expected to dominate the mature-node sector, holding 52% of global mature-process capacity.

Major economies are pursuing distinct strategies to build semiconductor self-sufficiency. The U.S. is incentivizing onshore production, with expansions by TSMC in Arizona and increased capital expenditure from Samsung and Intel. This push is expected to drive an 8.4% CAGR for U.S. foundry capacity from 2025-2029. Japan is also seeing rapid growth, supported by the expansion of the TSMC JASM fab in Kumamoto and the ambitious Rapidus project, targeting an even higher 10% CAGR for the same period.

While its relative share is forecast to decline, Taiwan is predicted to maintain its leadership in advanced-process manufacturing with 55% of global capacity in 2030, according to TrendForce. In contrast, due to restrictions on acquiring the most advanced manufacturing equipment, China is concentrating its massive investments on mature-node technology. The country is expected to become the world's leading supplier in this segment, surpassing Taiwan’s projected 26% share for mature processes.

ICgoodFind's Insight
The global semiconductor manufacturing base is fragmenting into distinct regional specialties. This decoupling, driven by geopolitics and national security, creates a more resilient but also more complex and potentially higher-cost global supply chain for the next decade.